Segala debaran sudah berakhir, kerusi Parlimen Kuala Terengganu yang sebelum ini dikuasai oleh Barisan Nasional (BN) sejak tahun 2004 akhirnya dirampas kembali oleh Pas yang pernah berbuat demikian pada tahun 1999.
Calon Pas, Mohd.Abdul Wahid Endut yang sudah lima penggal menjadi Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri kawasan Wakaf Mempelam berjaya melebarkan sayapnya ke Parlimen apabila memperolehi majoriti 2,631 undi menewaskan calon BN, Datuk Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh.
Sememangnya biarpun pilihan raya berkenaan turut disertai oleh calon Bebas, Azharudin Mamat namun persaingan lebih dilihat antara BN dan Pas. Kedua-dua parti itu bertarung sengit dari hari penamaan calon lagi iaitu pada 6 Januari lalu.
Sejak awal lagi, dari segi 'rating' sehinggalah malam pengundian Pas dikatakan mendahului sekitar 3,000 undi. Walaupun BN cuba bangkit di saat-saat akhir bagi mengurangkan majoriti namun ia gagal.
Kekalahan BN itu dianggap satu lagi tamparan yang diterima selepas parti tersebut kecundang di Permatang Pauh pada Ogos lalu. Ia sekaligus akan memberi modal kepada pakatan pembangkang yang disertai oleh Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), DAP dan Pas untuk meneruskan misi mereka mengkhabarkan kepada rakyat bahawa BN semakin ditolak atau sudah tidak relevan lagi.
Apa pun keadaannya, pilihan raya kecil berkenaan bukan sahaja menunjukkan bahawa jentera BN tidak belajar daripada pengalaman di Permatang Pauh malah mereka juga masih mengulangi tingkah laku yang tidak sesuai sebagai orang luar yang datang membantu jentera tempatan.
Sama ada hendak diakui atau tidak, Kuala Terengganu juga menyaksikan buat kali kedua bagaimana lemahnya jentera perang saraf BN, walaupun sehari sebelum hari penamaan calon pada 6 Januari lalu Pas sudah mula mengedar risalah dan makalah namun BN seolah-olah bersantai.
Risalah dan perang saraf BN hanya berlaku di penghujung-penghujung kempen ketika perang saraf Pas sudah meresapi hampir keseluruhan pemikiran pengundi. Walaupun BN mungkin sedikit sebanyak mampu mengawal keadaan tetapi pembangkang meneruskan pula serangan melalui ceramah-ceramahnya.
Apa yang malangnya, penceramah-penceramah BN gagal menangkis setiap serangan yang dilemparkan oleh pembangkang dalam ceramah mereka. Biarpun hakikatnya sebahagian besar dakwaan yang dibuat oleh pembangkang adalah palsu tetapi politik adalah berkaitan persepsi, apabila ada keraguan maka mereka akan mempercayai apa yang diperkatakan oleh pembangkang.
Lebih malang lagi, ada penceramah yang datang hanya 'menyerang' Pas berhubung hukum hudud manakala ada pula yang menjadikan Kuala Terengganu sebagai medan politik peribadi. Kesudahaannya mereka gagal untuk mempengaruhi pengundi bagi memastikan BN mencatatkan majoriti lebih besar memandangkan dalam tempoh satu malam sahaja segala hujah BN dapat dipatahkan oleh pembangkang.
Sokongan kepada BN juga tergugat apabila pembangkang melancarkan 'serangan' tiga hari berturut-turut sebelum hari pengundian dengan diketuai oleh Penasihat PKR, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
Selain menaburkan pelbagai dakyah mengenai pentadbiran negara, mereka juga melakukan serangan peribadi ke atas beberapa pemimpin UMNO termasuk Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak yang sejak awal lagi bertungkus lumus untuk memastikan kemenangan BN.
Masalah dalaman
Keadaan menjadi lebih buruk lagi, apabila masalah dalaman UMNO seolah-olah terus menjadi 'virus', kini terus mengancam parti itu di mana juga pilihan raya yang disertai. Difahamkan, sehingga awal pagi hari pengundian masalah itu tidak dapat diselesaikan dan ia memberi petanda awal bahawa BN akan menghadapi kekalahan.
Mungkin ada di antara kita yang membuat tafsiran awal bahawa kekalahan ini ada kaitan dengan personaliti Wan Ahmad Farid, namun untuk bertindak adil kepada beliau yang juga Ketua UMNO Bahagian Kuala Terengganu, personaliti bukanlah faktor utama.
Faktor yang paling jelas menyumbang kepada kekalahan BN ialah jumlah keluar mengundi yang terlalu rendah, pengundi bukan Melayu tidak menyebelahi BN, masalah dalaman UMNO dan kekurangan sokongan daripada sebahagian kakitangan kerajaan.
Turut memeritkan lagi BN, apabila wujudnya tafsiran di kalangan pengundi bahawa pilihan raya ini tidak mempunyai apa-apa signifikannya kepada arena politik negara. Mereka membuat tafsiran bahawa siapapun menang BN tetap memerintah pusat dan negeri.
Persepsi ini juga memungkinkan pengundi-pengundi luar termasuk penyokong BN membuat keputusan tidak balik untuk mengundi. Bagi pembangkang pula, kemenangan ini tidak harus dibanggakan sangat kerana berdasarkan undi yang diperolehi oleh Wan Ahmad Farid adalah jelas penyokong BN tidak berganjak.
Pas atau pakatan pembangkang memperoleh kemenangan melalui pengundi atas pagar, sebahagian golongan pendidik yang menyokong Allahyarham Datuk Razali Ismail dan pengundi bukan Melayu yang sememangnya sejak awal lagi dilihat tidak memihak kepada BN.
Malah kemenangan ini juga seharusnya memberikan pengajaran kepada pembangkang untuk menerima realiti politik bahawa di Malaysia tidak ada pengundi hantu dan kita yakin tuduhan ini tidak akan lagi kedengaran berikutan kemenangan berkenaan.
Apa pun rakyat Kuala Terengganu sudah membuat keputusan dan semua pihak harus menghormatinya kerana itulah amalan demokrasi di Malaysia.
Semoga kali ini, kekalahan di Kuala Terengganu akan benar-benar menginsafkan BN. Parti itu perlu melakukan 'post mortem' secara terperinci, telus dan tegas bagi memperbaiki kelemahannya. Ini kerana apa yang berlaku dalam pilihan raya kecil tersebut tidak harus dilihat sebagai 'kalah di satu kerusi sahaja' tetapi perlu dilihat dalam skop yang lebih luas dalam menghadapi pilihan raya umum akan datang.
Marilah Kita Renung2kan Rakan2
Friday, January 23, 2009
Young Malaysian Voters....
Malaysia's young voters appear to be getting impatient with what they perceive as Barisan Nasional's reluctance and resistance to change,Malaysia holds its 13th general election, in 2013 at the latest, the balance between victory and defeat will hinge on younger voters.This opinionated group will determine whether or not Barisan Nasional stays in power. And BN should be worried, as young voters have sent a clear message -- not just once but three times in the last 10 months -- that they will only support a political party that shares their aspirations.Weakened by the March 2008 general election, the Umno-led BN badly needs to secure the votes of young voters, whose numbers are expected to reach six million by the next general election.
The biggest headache for Umno and BN is that the majority of young people have grievances with either or both of them, and if this is not remedied within the next few years, the next election results could be even worse.Based on the country's present birth rate, with 450,000 to 500,000 babies born annually, two million more young Malaysians will reach 21 and be eligible to vote in the next general election.The power of the young will be further reinforced by four million eligible voters, many under 30, who did not register in time for the 2008 elections.
If all two million youngsters choose to register, the eligible voter population in the country will be 16.9 million, including the 10.9 million currently registered.This means young voters will hold the power to instigate change, and they can demand that their voices be heard. Ignoring them could spell disaster, as younger voters in the 12th general election and two subsequent by-elections leaned towards the opposition, especially in urban areas.An analysis of the March 2008 general election results shows that many newly-registered voters and those below 30 supported Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Pas and DAP candidates; all three, to their credit, are ahead of BN in warming to young voters.
Opposition candidates got their messages across through social networking tools on the Internet and mobile phones, while BN relied mostly on newspapers and the broadcast media.A bitter pill for BN was seeing young voters it ferried back in buses to Kelantan from the Klang Valley, not only voting for the opposition but also persuading their relatives and peers to do so.In the Aug 26 Permatang Pauh by-election, more than 90 per cent of voters under 30 voted for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. One key reason for this was young Internet-savvy voters obtaining their news chiefly from the pro-opposition alternative media, which they perceive as more credible than the mainstream media.In the recently-concluded Kuala Terengganu by-election, which BN lost, detailed voting data indicated that the ruling coalition had again lost most support from among those under 35.Political apathy among youth is long gone.
The young are aware of what is happening around them and have varied reasons to vote for the opposition.BN's disconnect from young people is most alarming in the case of urban professionals, who no longer believe that the ruling coalition is capable of making a better Malaysia.Non-Malays cannot accept the New Economic Policy, considering it as benefiting only the Malays, while young educated Malays concerned with good governance, human rights and democratic ideals view Umno and BN as corrupt.Several political analysts think that youngsters tend to favour the opposition because they have more liberal views of democracy, with less preference for race-based politics, which explains the appeal of multiracial PKR.Young people also do not feel indebted to the government that achieved independence half a century ago. BN leaders should realise by now that campaigning on the basis of track records, especially after Kuala Terengganu, no longer works with younger voters.
There has been no attempt to draw up a plan for Umno or BN to win over young voters since the March 8 electoral setback, despite many politicians talking about getting closer to this group.It has been suggested that BN field more politicians in their 30s and 40s in the next general election, in the hope that these young leaders can speak the language of young people and connect with them.The recent United States presidential elections, where more than 63 per cent of young voters backed 47-year-old Barack Obama, is testimony of how young people want leaders to whom they can relate.According to a Gallup poll in October, even before the polls, young Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 favoured Obama over John McCain by a huge margin of 59 per cent to 38 per cent.In the Malaysian context, BN leaders need not comprise entirely of the young; older politicians, if they are able to embrace "young people things" and understand their needs and aspirations, are still needed for their wisdom and experience.What matters to most young people are the two Es: engagement and empowerment.
BN needs to engage and give them the recognition they deserve, and help nurture them to explore and expand their potential.It needs to accept and fulfil sincerely their wish to have a say in the economy and governance.In trying to reinvent and revitalise, prescriptions for BN to undertake "wholesale reform", "sweeping change" and "fresh initiatives" should be seriously considered.The focus should be on the economy, political stability, freedom of education, job opportunities and social problems, which are the main issues for youth. Managing the economy will be the key over the next three years, as the economic downturn will affect their job opportunities.The uphill battle for BN is to rid Umno of its rent-seeking image and hold its own against the attacks of the alternative media, and for all component parties to find new ways and means to engage young people.
So Wake UP and Start Take Care Of Our Future Voters
Arman Azha Hj Abu Hanifah
The biggest headache for Umno and BN is that the majority of young people have grievances with either or both of them, and if this is not remedied within the next few years, the next election results could be even worse.Based on the country's present birth rate, with 450,000 to 500,000 babies born annually, two million more young Malaysians will reach 21 and be eligible to vote in the next general election.The power of the young will be further reinforced by four million eligible voters, many under 30, who did not register in time for the 2008 elections.
If all two million youngsters choose to register, the eligible voter population in the country will be 16.9 million, including the 10.9 million currently registered.This means young voters will hold the power to instigate change, and they can demand that their voices be heard. Ignoring them could spell disaster, as younger voters in the 12th general election and two subsequent by-elections leaned towards the opposition, especially in urban areas.An analysis of the March 2008 general election results shows that many newly-registered voters and those below 30 supported Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Pas and DAP candidates; all three, to their credit, are ahead of BN in warming to young voters.
Opposition candidates got their messages across through social networking tools on the Internet and mobile phones, while BN relied mostly on newspapers and the broadcast media.A bitter pill for BN was seeing young voters it ferried back in buses to Kelantan from the Klang Valley, not only voting for the opposition but also persuading their relatives and peers to do so.In the Aug 26 Permatang Pauh by-election, more than 90 per cent of voters under 30 voted for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. One key reason for this was young Internet-savvy voters obtaining their news chiefly from the pro-opposition alternative media, which they perceive as more credible than the mainstream media.In the recently-concluded Kuala Terengganu by-election, which BN lost, detailed voting data indicated that the ruling coalition had again lost most support from among those under 35.Political apathy among youth is long gone.
The young are aware of what is happening around them and have varied reasons to vote for the opposition.BN's disconnect from young people is most alarming in the case of urban professionals, who no longer believe that the ruling coalition is capable of making a better Malaysia.Non-Malays cannot accept the New Economic Policy, considering it as benefiting only the Malays, while young educated Malays concerned with good governance, human rights and democratic ideals view Umno and BN as corrupt.Several political analysts think that youngsters tend to favour the opposition because they have more liberal views of democracy, with less preference for race-based politics, which explains the appeal of multiracial PKR.Young people also do not feel indebted to the government that achieved independence half a century ago. BN leaders should realise by now that campaigning on the basis of track records, especially after Kuala Terengganu, no longer works with younger voters.
There has been no attempt to draw up a plan for Umno or BN to win over young voters since the March 8 electoral setback, despite many politicians talking about getting closer to this group.It has been suggested that BN field more politicians in their 30s and 40s in the next general election, in the hope that these young leaders can speak the language of young people and connect with them.The recent United States presidential elections, where more than 63 per cent of young voters backed 47-year-old Barack Obama, is testimony of how young people want leaders to whom they can relate.According to a Gallup poll in October, even before the polls, young Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 favoured Obama over John McCain by a huge margin of 59 per cent to 38 per cent.In the Malaysian context, BN leaders need not comprise entirely of the young; older politicians, if they are able to embrace "young people things" and understand their needs and aspirations, are still needed for their wisdom and experience.What matters to most young people are the two Es: engagement and empowerment.
BN needs to engage and give them the recognition they deserve, and help nurture them to explore and expand their potential.It needs to accept and fulfil sincerely their wish to have a say in the economy and governance.In trying to reinvent and revitalise, prescriptions for BN to undertake "wholesale reform", "sweeping change" and "fresh initiatives" should be seriously considered.The focus should be on the economy, political stability, freedom of education, job opportunities and social problems, which are the main issues for youth. Managing the economy will be the key over the next three years, as the economic downturn will affect their job opportunities.The uphill battle for BN is to rid Umno of its rent-seeking image and hold its own against the attacks of the alternative media, and for all component parties to find new ways and means to engage young people.
So Wake UP and Start Take Care Of Our Future Voters
Arman Azha Hj Abu Hanifah
Monday, January 5, 2009
Kenapa Anwar Membisu atas Kekejaman Israel
Membisunya Anwar Atas Kekejaman Israel & Amerika
Israel mengganas lagi. Beratus rakyat Palestin terbunuh dan banyak lagi cedera atas tindakan pengganas Israel. Syaitan Amerika seperti biasa akan membela "Tuan" mereka itu. Obama yg dikatakan membawa harapan baru itupun tidak akan dapat berbuat apa-apa yg bertentangan dengan kepentingan Israel, kerana Presiden Amerika bukanlah orang yg paling berkuasa dinegara tersebut, tetapi pemodal-pemodal Yahudi yang berada didalam Majlis Illuminati lah yg paling berkuasa.
Israel mengganas lagi. Beratus rakyat Palestin terbunuh dan banyak lagi cedera atas tindakan pengganas Israel. Syaitan Amerika seperti biasa akan membela "Tuan" mereka itu. Obama yg dikatakan membawa harapan baru itupun tidak akan dapat berbuat apa-apa yg bertentangan dengan kepentingan Israel, kerana Presiden Amerika bukanlah orang yg paling berkuasa dinegara tersebut, tetapi pemodal-pemodal Yahudi yang berada didalam Majlis Illuminati lah yg paling berkuasa.
Setelah 2 hari peristiwa berdarah itu, saya menunggu-nunggu juga akan kenyataan kutukan rasmi terhadap Israel & Amerika daripada saudara Penasihat PKR, Anwar Ibrahim. Saya mecari-cari di dalam akhbar-akhbar utama, Harakahdaily, laman rasmi PKR, blog rasmi Anwar Ibrahim, laman Anwar Ibrahim Club, dan hasilnya, seperti jangkaan saya, TIADA ! Tepat sekali jangkaan saya, Anwar Ibrahim, sama sekali tidak akan mengeluarkan kenyataan atau membuat apa-apa tindakan untuk mengutuk Israel & Amerika Syarikat.
Saya tidak pernah sama-sekali membaca kenyataan kutukan keras Anwar Ibrahim keatas puak-puak Isreal & Amerika ini. Tidak seperti kenyataan Tun Mahathir & Presiden PAS yang amat keras kenyataannya terhadap syaitan-syaitan itu.
Kenapa ini berlaku ? Kenapa Anwar Ibrahim tidak pernah mengeluarkan kenyataan kutukan terhadap Israel & Amerika ? Tidakkah anda semua berfikir ? Jawapannya adalah kerana Anwar Ibrahim adalah ditaja oleh golongan ini, bersekongkol dgn golongan ini. Anwar Ibrahim sudah termasuk ke dalam perangkap Illuminati & Luciferian & tidak akan dapat keluar lagi. Antara pantang larang kumpulan ini adalah tidak boleh sama sekali mengeluarkan kenyataan terbuka mengutuk Israel, Amerika & geng-geng kumpulan mereka seperti IMF, Bank Dunia dan lain2 sekutu dan juga tidak boleh sama sekali membuat kenyataan terbuka menafikan penglibatan diri didalam kumpulan Illuminati dan Luciferian. Sebab itulah walaupun byk sekali tuduhan-tuduhan terhadap Anwar sbg talibarut yahudi & Illuminati, beliau sekalipun tidak pernah cuba untuk menafikannya secara terbuka !
Haritu (Selasa 30 Disember 2008) di hadapan Kedutaan Amerika, Pemuda PAS akan mengadakan perhimpunan mengutuk kekejaman Israel. Saya bukanlah ingin mempromosi perhimpunan Pemuda PAS itu, tetapi saya ingin mencabar saudara Anwar Ibrahim, sekiranya saudara ingin menafikan tuduhan saya di atas, maka saya cabar saudara supaya saudara mengetuai ahli-ahli PKR menyertai perhimpunan tersebut ! Saya cabar saudara Anwar ! Beranikah saudara ??? Jika tidak, maka benarlah segala tuduhan...
Wahai Sdr Anwar apa kata tuan mengetuai satu perhimpunan raksaksa dihadapan Duta Amerika bagi mengutuk kekejaman Israel dan Amerika yg menyokong tindakan Israel itu...Tunjukkan semangat agama Islam Sdr Anwar....
Mari Kita Bersatu Bangkit dan Bantu dari segi sokongan dan Doa buat Palestine Rakan2 ..Sekian ,Wasalam
arman azha hj abu hanifah
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